One year after the invasion: A more united EU?

Almost one year ago, in the early hours of the 24th of February, Russian troops crossed the Ukrainian border, tragically plunging Europe into a renewed winter of fear. One year later, the EU, in a remarkable and unprecedented show of unity, is still supporting the defiant people of Ukraine in their existential struggle for freedom. The energy prices shock as well as its growth depressing consequences seem to have been weathered better than expected. After a moment of hesitation, the EU Green Deal looks overall, so far, comforted rather than questioned.

However, contrary to the energy sector, the greening of the EU food system will unfortunately be slowed rather than accelerated (EJD will be publishing a blog-post on the issue on the 24th of February). In addition, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is increasing intra-EU tensions, whether on the rhythm of provision of weapons to Ukraine or on the reform of the electricity market.

All in all, it appears that the long-term impact of the Russian aggression on European integration could go both ways: either a strengthening, or a weakening. Whatever the verdict will be,  unity remains the cornerstone of the European integration project. Without unity, in a world ridden by crisis, fragmentation and brutalisation, the EU risks melting like snow on the branches under the first spring sun.

The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) massive green subsidisation package and the protectionist elements it contains have triggered a debate on how to respond to preserve the EU from its likely damaging impact and on how to better coordinate both sides of the Atlantic (read our analysis here). The compromise reached last week on an adequate EU response may only be temporary and new discussions are likely to come on a possible EU sovereign fund.

Let me end on a more optimistic note: the final round of discussions on the High Seas Treaty, which will take place in New York in the coming week, looks more promising than ever. If agreed upon, this Treaty will establish new disciplines to protect high seas marine life and habitats and it will ensure the attainment of the biodiversity objectives stipulated at COP15. With the window of opportunity to finalise a deal rapidly narrowing, the European Union and its Member States will have to intensify their efforts to muster the necessary international consensus  (read our op-ed here).